Roaring 20s again? Probably more like Meowing 20s.

Everyone is suggesting the U.S. (and world) will have another period like the Roaring 20s because we had a pandemic similar to the pandemic in 1918. There is just one huge, tiny problem (to quote G.O.B. Bluth) with that comparison: WW I.

From 1914 – 1918 the world was engulfed in World War I. During that time period:

• The U.S. Spend $32 billion (52% of GDP) on the War effort
• 3 million men were drafted (This would be like 10+ million men today)
• Unemployment dropped to 1.4%

So it wasn’t 1 year. It was almost 5 years of separation for a lot of families.

So all of the sudden in 1919 we expand the workforce by 10% and everyone has a lot of money to spend because they couldn’t spend it during the war effort. And there was baby making to boot.

But that’s not all: After the war, who was the only country that wasn’t destroyed? Oh right that’s the U.S. Thus, our economy boomed because the U.S. helped rebuild Europe AND was the only country that had production capacity.

The bottom line is that yes we will be BOOMING this year and maybe some into next year. But there is no reason to expect a “roaring 20s.”