Thank you to all of those that attended the 2024 Newport Beach Chamber 2024 Economic and Financial Forecast. In summary, the economy will keep slugging along until we get some...

One of the most interesting things in finance right now is the Real Estate market. Home prices may have bottomed, but no one is selling. It’s really not a market....

The meme stock phenomenon started over two years ago now. One is gone (BBBY) and the next one is about to go – AMC. Here’s the five year chart. The...

Everyone has been raving about the Japanese Stock Market this year. At first glance, it’s had a great year. Just one, small technical problem: You would have rather owned the...

Right now in financial markets, stocks (well at least 6 of them) are acting like there’s zero chance of a recession. The bond market is signaling there is going to...

CPI came out this morning a bit lighter than expected and it’s clear the inflation crash is in process. As I have posted many time now, this is headline CPI,...

The Fed just paused it’s rate increases, but the market is taking it on the chin. Why? The Fed signaled two more rate increases are coming this year. As I’ve...

So far this year the S&P500 is up 13%. Of that 13%, the top 5 components – Apple, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Tesla – account for 12.5%. In other words,...

Although the market thinks the Fed is done raising rates (or perhaps on a long pause), monetary policy is *FINALLY* getting restrictive. And my guess is it will get much...

Today’s CPI report was the first in almost **two years** that showed a decline in ‘sticky’ inflation. This is likely the beginning of a substantial downward trend in inflation Many...

Thank you to everyone that attended the February 2023 Econ Forecast co-sponsed by the Newport Beach Chamber of Commerce and for Edwards Lifesciences for having me provide a forecast in...

Tesla stock is down over 60% from its high. It was predictable this would happen: Way overvalued. People also seem to now understand why Elon was fired from PayPal. But...

Thank you to everyone who came out to the Newport Beach Chamber’s 2023 Economic and Financial Forecast at the Balboa Bay Resort. As always, I am humbled by the number...

September CPI is again hotter than people expect. People don’t understand it’s not oil driving these number: It’s labor related issues. Until the labor market cools, we have a problem....

After last month’s CPI, I asked you if you believed in miracles. The market was all excited the worst of inflation was behind us. However, as I pointed out, the...

CPI came in this morning at 0% with core CPI at 0.3%. The YoY is 8.5% and 5.9%. It was obvious with gas coming down that CPI would be lower...

The yield curve has a solid inversion right now, indicating we will have a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. Given the accuracy of this indicator, you can...

The last few weeks the market has been rallying. The NASDAQ is still off 20% for the year, but it was down almost 30%. Why is the market doing so...

Lots of talk that we are already in a recession because we’ll likely have two quarters of negative real GDP growth in Q1 and Q2. I don’t think people know...

I have been on this train for a while … you can’t fight the Fed. Why is the market down so much today? Just look at bonds. Everything is getting...

CPI came out at 8.6% today year over year. This was higher than expected. Believe it or not, the real issue isn’t gas prices. The real issue is that inflation...

As many of you know, the Center for Investment and Wealth Management has a residential college-bound program that uses financial literacy as a way to prepare and motivate high school...

The housing market has been in a total sellers market for 2 years now. Low mortgage rates and WFH fueled priced and lowered inventory. Whelp, the 50% increase in YoY...

Who wants to buy Nvidia at 21 times sales with the crypto market (and all the mining demand) imploding? Please leave this field empty Get Weekly Updates In Your Email...

The market is off to a tough start this year, especially with stocks that did well the last 12-18 months. Prices are down, but stocks are not cheap – thus,...

CPI was up 8.3% and core CPI was up over 6%. The issue for CPI now is Rents. I discussed this a few months ago: There is a lag between...

The Fed raised rates by 50 bps this week. The market is thinking that the Fed will raise rates to ~3% and then stop. However, based on historical actions that...

I’ve posted several times the last few months about the market hitting a top. (1/6, 1/25, 1/31, etc.) This is especially true of NASDAQ and Tech (see RIVN for example)....

While we have been focused on things like oil, used car prices, etc. perhaps the biggest price increase over the last 12 months has been in housing. While home prices...

If you have heard me give an econ forecast this year, I’ve spoken a lot about how the Fed’s forecast was too high. I’ve also mentioned a coming glut in...

Today’s CPI came out at 7.9%. This isn’t just oil and food – core CPI isn’t far behind. More generally, the issue is that inflation is now starting to seep...

The 2nd Fed meeting of the year is coming up. People are wondering if the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% or more aggressive and raise rates by 0.50%. The...

The Market – well, Nasdaq – is rallying today. Not sure how far we’ll run, but please be careful. It seems to be build on a foundation of crap. Remember:...

It’s been a tough start to the year. As noted on Jan 6, the music is fading. We had a nice intraday rally yesterday. Does that mean we are done?...

Housing prices are up a crazy amount since COVID began. As I’ve said before, given mortgage rates, housing is still pretty affordable. Regardless if you agree with that or not,...

“It’s a dog, what else you got sport?” – Gordon Gekko. I’m with Gordon. I’m guessing DOGE – down over 80% from the high – never makes it back to...

The jobs report came out today. The 199k job growth was WAY below what the “expectations” were. But those expectations were a joke. There is no way to grow our...

As bad as it may feel, markets this year are only down 1-2%. Some underlying “delusional dream” stocks are down 10-20%. Crypto is working its way to the crypt. One...

Omicron is spreading like wild fire. We hit **1 million** (cue Austin Powers) cases today. But looking at restaurant and hotel data you wouldn’t know it. Minus some holiday noise,...

Why is the market up so much this year? People can talk easy money, Fed interest rates, the number of rainbows, who knows. This one graph tells you why. It’s...

As expected, the Fed discussed a much more aggressive tightening schedule over the next few months than was thought a few months ago. The stock market rallied on the news,...

The latest CPI update will come out tomorrow and it will be all bad news. Rents will be worse. And even though oil/gas prices haven’t gone up much, they will...

Lucid Motors is worth $73 billion. They have 13k reservations. They’ve shipped (literally) a few. They are the 7th most valuable car company. Why so much? Duh they have an...

ARKK is down almost 7% today as the NASDAQ has a tough day. Earlier this year I said she didn’t have any skill and many said I didn’t know statistics....

Some days I wonder if finance has just passed me by. Maybe one day Milk will cost 20 DOGE or 15,000 Shiba. Maybe Tesla really is worth 150% more than...

I’ve said it once, twice, no many times. Bitcoin does not function as gold in terms of diversifying a portfolio. It’s just a super levered risky asset. Exhibit 1,015,294: Today’s...

News today that the US is releasing 50 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve. Market response: Oil price is up 2.6%. Why? 50mm is 2 days of demand...

I had a first a couple days ago: The authorized amount on my credit card ran out before my car was filled. Gas prices here in CA are at all...

While everyone is focused on food prices, the real issue for the economy and the markets is that the political climate for inflation has changed. Which means the markets now...

Beyond Meat is down sharply today after a bad earnings miss. Not only that, but the CFO has some interesting comments on the call that sounded Worldcom style. BYND has...

October CPI came out today and boy it’s hot. Overall at 6.2%. Removing used cars and oil (which is still only 1/2 what it was in 2007), CPI is now...

While I have been saying for a while that overall the market is not likely in a bubble, I also think that tech stocks are way ahead of themselves. Why?...

Housing has been on fire the last 18 months. Part of that run up is due to corporations coming into the market and buying in mass. Zillow was one of...

Just another day in the land of Tulips errr Tokens. SQUID coin was up 40,000% this weekend to $2800 a coin. Whelp, today the developers exited stage left with their...

In finance, we talk about how future growth is “priced in.” Whelp, Tesla has priced in becoming the entire car industry. In fact based on industry multiplies, it’s overpriced even...

The last few months we’ve see housing prices increasing faster than even during the housing bubble. While many people think it would go forever, housing price gains are slowing already....

Snap Inc. (aka Snapchat) is down 25% today after the company disappointed with their earnings. Snap is part of the delusional dream list. TWTR + SNAP + GRPN + PINS...

Thank you to the UCI Young Alumni Association for having me back to talk about Cryptocurrencies! It was fun discussing how I think they (and Defi) fit into the financial...

The CPI story for 2022 is going to be rents. “Shelter” or what is also called “Owner’s Equivalent Rent” is going to rise rapidly over the next few months and...

Today’s September CPI came out with year over year inflation at 5.4%. While it may seem like core CPI was good news, we continue to see temporary aka transitory inflation...

All of you know I love random finance trivia. Today I’m going to explain the trillion dollar coin trick people are saying the US government could use to avoid a...

Classic economics: When demand pushes the price up, it’s time to supply the market. Whelp, that’s exactly what is happening with stocks. IPOs have surpassed the tech bubble high. Here...

The markets are down today as rates are increasing. Some times the markets rally because higher rates mean higher growth. Not now. Higher rates are all about higher inflation. It’s...

Historically, we worried about state funded product dumping. i.e. a country’s government subsides production, it gets dumped it on the world, drives out competition, and then drives up pricing. Well,...

Excited that I will be speaking about Cryptocurrencies on October 19th to the Young Alumni of UCI. If you are a UCI alumni or student, you can register via this...

Beyond Meat is a perfect example that price matters. Weeks after it IPO’d it was at $240/share. I told people it was too expensive. And yet I got endlessly mocked....

The headline inflation numbers were better than expected and year-over-year inflation is slowing. But CPI outside transportation is still rising. Most of the growth in inflation from January to June...

Some economists are suggesting Delta impacted the economy in Q3 as growth estimates have been cut from 10% to 4%. I just don’t see it. The problem is the economy...

The August labor report came today. You can read lots on jobs and the unemployment rate other places. I want to focus on wage growth, which is now up to...

The Fed says it will likely start Tapering in Nov/Dec. In the past people have talked about a “Taper Tantrum.” The Data really doesn’t say long-term investors should care. Let’s...

Last week I posted about demographics and rates. Why is this so important? Financial markets and correlations are COMPLETELY different in rising and falling rate environments. Below I graph the...

The NASDAQ hit 15,0000 this week for the first time. I can’t help but think that fashion err mispricing is repeating every 20 years. Here’s the updated total return of...

In my opinion, economists discount the importance of demographics. For example, here is a graph of the ratio of the 15-39 population and the 40+ population and 10-year interest rates....

Bitcoin is supposedly “digital” gold. Let’s say I concede this is true…. is that a good thing? In 1971, the US went off the gold standard and by 1980 gold...

Robinhood announced their earnings yesterday. The list of how they make money pretty much shows you everything wrong with how they make money. Crypto made up 50% of revenue last...

One of the most important books for new investors to read is “Random Walk on Wall Street.” It says stock returns are random. Bitcoin returns? No so much… Sell on...

CPI was up 5.4% year-over-year last month, which is down jusssst slightly from last month. After removing used cars and oil (Chris’s core CPI right now), inflation was up 2.1%...

Nothing much from Crypto-Bulls lately… but now… Bitcoin is Up! DOGE is amazing!!! Last chance to get in!! Meanwhile, the “printing press” of Crypto tokens is cranking out new supply...

Robinhood got the Robinhood treatment the last two days. Stock up 25% Tuesday. Got all the attention overnight and was up 125% early Wednesday… only to watch everyone get suckered...

Latest graph of new cases per day and fully vaccinated rate. Again, vaccines work. More to come tomorrow in case you still don’t believe it. Please leave this field empty...

The media and CDC seem to be super negative about the power of vaccines against Delta. Here’s the bottom line: Are Vaccines perfect? No. But vaccines are freaking GOOD against...

Everyone is worried about Delta. But based on data from the UK, it won’t last long. It’s super efficient at infecting, but it burns through the match too fast as...

Case Shiller home prices released this morning show the FASTEST year-over-year price growth EVER. Faster than the housing bubble. While we don’t have that many crazy loans, my fear is...

Wall Street is worried about the Delta Variant this morning. Cases have doubled, hospitalizations are increasing, and restrictions are being re-implemented threating the recovery. This is simply due to failure...

June CPI came out yesterday at 5.4% and people are freaking out. But they are missing that CPI is being driving simply by car prices (which people can skip buying)...

Whenever you buy real estate, if you ask the 3 most important things, the list is location, location, location. In case, you didn’t believe it, here’s a map between Saturday’s...

A few days ago, I showed that price doesn’t really matter for stock returns. Today, I show you that value does matter. This chart shows you the average annualized returns...

10-year rate down 0.50%. 5-year inflation expectations down 0.30%. 10-year minus 2-year – an indicator of future growth – is down almost 0.50%. What does it all mean? The market...

Given the stock market is at all time highs, lots of questions about whether it’s too late to buy. Historically, except for after a big crash, all time highs are...

Rohinhood’s IPO documents were released yesterday and there are some interesting items. For example, they list investor interest in DOGEcoin as a business risk. Check out the graph below to...

It’s already my favorite day of the year again! Forgot why? It’s a day when you can see the power of compounding and time value of money. The day Bobby...

Last week, the Fed met. They said interest rates would remain at zero. They would continue asset purchases. They still view inflation as transitory. But there were *HUGE* shifts in...

When it comes to financial markets, the Fed is the Boss. Why? They impact everything. Just look at the returns of growth vs. value stocks and the 10-year interest rate...

The Fed will speak today after its 2-day meeting. All ears will be on what they say about inflation. My guess? They will double down on transitory. Why? Current inflation...

After 443 days, CA will reopen today. During that time, I gave 10 forecasts and made 100s of posts with lots of predictions. I thought I’d spend a few minutes...

The Housing and COVID Recessions had the same prescription: lots of fiscal and monetary stimulus. If the stock market results are similar, then it looks like the stock market may...

A lot of people have been asking me if we are in another housing bubble. Short answer: we aren’t even close. To reach 2005 affordability, prices need to increase 70%...

AMC is having a wild ride today after announcing they’ll give out free popcorn to shareholders. Finally there’s a reason to buy the stock. At $10 a tub, if you...

One thing that the human brain struggles with is extremely low probabilities. People either these probabilities to a high chance or to zero. If you don’t have COVID today, your...

Thank you to the hundreds of UCI Alumni and Students that attended last night’s presentation on the basics of investing and stocks! You can download my presentation HERE. This presentation...