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Let’s get (Is)rael about the US COVID Surge

Many in the media are pushing the idea that the US is having another surge in COVID cases. There is no real surge and this is just a pause. How do we know? Let’s look at Israel’s data, who is a few weeks ahead of us in the vaccine game.

You can clearly see the plateau Israel hit for a couple weeks as the vaccine was taking hold and things started to reopen. We are currently in that stage. There is no real surge here in the U.S. Here’s our case data:

you can see we are more in a pause than a surge. But just give it time because vaccines are surging.

171 million strong and growing (cue the Flintstones vitamin commercials).

Bottom line: Cases will start to decline again soon and we’ll be parting in 1919.

Revisiting FAANG vs. NYSE

Back in September, I made a couple of posts (here, here) about how extrapolating the great FAANG returns from the prior 12 months would probably lead to underperformance and disappointment. Let’s see how that prediction worked.

FAANG stocks have underperformed by about 15% over the last 7 months. This is only natural after their huge run. The question is… will the underperformance continue?

The ratio of the NASDAQ to NYSE is still elevated, which would imply continued underperformance of the NASDAQ. Note that FAANG stocks represent 31%of the NASDAQ 100 weights.

My expectation over the next few years is the NYSE – aka boring stocks – will do better than NASDAQ.

Let’s get (Is)rael about the US COVID Surge

Revisiting FAANG vs. NYSE

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