Coming Soon: “Normal”

I continue to believe that people are far too negative on COVID. Cases, hospitalizations, and positivity rate are plummeting – probably because a lot of people have had COVID. Vaccine distribution is up. This has huge implications.

While many people want to doubt some of the Vaccines, this is the important information right here:

That’s right. Not ONE person was hospitalized for COVID in these studies. That’s the important thing – it’s not if people get sick but if people get seriously ill and overwhelm the medical system.

Think about what happens we things reopen:

  • How many people will still trade stocks now that do it for fun?
  • How much are people going to drive?
  • What about pent up demand for services?
  • Travel? Yes please
  • Non-casual workout clothing for reopening
  • Gyms for the people (like me) that put on the COVID 19
  • How many people are paying for door dash when they can just pick it up on the way home from work?
  • How happy will SFO people be in South Dakota once they realized there are no museums, theaters, concerts, and a lack of restaurant options?

There are huge behavior changes coming. Be ready for what they mean for the economy.

Bitcoin is a Stock, Not a Dollar Hedge

When people talk about Bitcoin, they think it’s a hedge for the death of the U.S. Dollar and a portfolio hedge against stocks. Wrong. Bitcoin is nothing but a very volatile stock.

This figure plots daily Bitcoin returns against returns of the US Dollar index (left) and then against the S&P 500 (right). (You can click on the figure to make it bigger.)

There is no relation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar. However, there is almost a 1 to 1 relation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

Thus, adding Bitcoin to your portfolio is just adding a really really volatile stock to your equity portfolio.