It’s about CloVID Time

One thing that the human brain struggles with is extremely low probabilities. People either these probabilities to a high chance or to zero. If you don’t have COVID today, your probability of dying in a car each year is the same.

Take air travel for example. Your probability of dying on an airplane is 1 out of 11 million per year. You are 2,000 times more likely dying on the way to the airport than on the airplane. Yet some people are panic fliers because they take the 1 out of 11 million and translate it into their heads to say 1 in 5 – something their brains can understand.

In the same vane, people are now becoming too risk averse when it comes to COVID. Here’s a graph that shows the probability of death by various causes in the US per year. For COVID stats, I’ve used today’s 7-day case average multiplied by a 1% chance of death if you get COVID and annualized it. Note this is a very high mortality rate if you have the vaccine so this is significantly overstating your COVID risk.

As you can see, in the US your chance of dying from COVID is similar to dying from an accidental or drug poisoning. In California, you have an equal shot of dying in a car accident or from COVID. Here in the OC, you are just about equally likely to die walking across the street or from dying of COVID.

Get your vaccine and then enjoy the reopenings that are coming. Unless you thinking getting in a car or walking across is too risky, your shouldn’t worry too much about get COVID.

THIS IS NOT A LICENSE TO BE STUPID OF COURSE. Wear your seat belt, look both directions before crossing the street, and follow local mask rules.