coronoavirus

Update on COVID19 cases

More and more states are starting to reopen here in the US. Even California will begin “Stage 2” reopening Friday (May 9). Let’s see how we are doing compared to Italy.

US and Italy compared over time. Italy +14 days

It’s pretty clear we are running well behind Italy in terms of curbing cases of COVID-19 in the US.

The potentially more concerning part is testing. While testing has ramped up, it is no where near the number of tests that the U.S. would need for test and trace.

Number tests per day in the U.S.

The only good news is that for 5 states that have reopened, while the total number of cases remains near the peak, there has not been an explosion in new cases.

Reopen State cases per day. Orange line is the 5 day moving average

We’ll see what happens as states reopen.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago

Will Reopening Cause a Second Wave of Infections?

One of the big concerns about reopening is we are going to have a ‘second wave’ of coronavirus cases. It seems fairly obviously that cases would go up, especially if we don’t have the proper amount of testing.

The good (?) news is that 4 states are started or will start to reopen soon:

  • Florida has reopened some of its beaches
  • Georgia plans on just about a full reopening by the end of next week
  • South Carolina is opening many stores and beaches
  • Tennessee will open most counties Monday

One issue is these states still have a pretty high case load even as of yesterday:

We can use these states to track what the case load does after the reopening begins. Additionally, we will be able to see how much of the economy improves on reopening, especially in Georgia. They will open restaurants on April 27th.

It’s also worth noting that Atlanta’s airport is the busiest in the world.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago