Job Recovery Stalled Out

Initial Jobless Claims were close to 850,000 again today. Here’s how that compares to the rest of the year.

While the number looks great compared to March, this number is till 200,000 higher than ANY week pre-Covid.

The job market may be deteriorating here as we see more permanent job losses and colder weather starts to impact some service businesses again.

Please also note it has been 29 weeks since the first huge surge in claims. Many initials are past 26 weeks (the usual limit) so continuing claims will be less informative about job market health going forward.

COVID is Still Everywhere

It’s been a long time since I posted COVID data. Here is the current 7 day averages in EU and US.

Here is the US cases are beginning to rise again after making progress. This could be related to Labor Day weekend activities. The EU is close to square #1 again.

Bottom line is COVID has the ability to cause significant economic disruptions going forward, especially as we move indoors when the weather declines.