covid

Everyone is worried about Delta. But based on data from the UK, it won’t last long. It’s super efficient at infecting, but it burns through the match too fast as there aren’t a lot of people left to infect.

Here’s daily cases from the UK. Their vax rate is a bit higher than the US, but they also used a vaccine that isn’t quite as good as Pfizer/Moderna. Importantly note they didn’t put in really any restrictions so this is natural burn out this time.

It was about 6 weeks from bottom to top. I’m not sure about the exact time frame, but my guess is we have peak delta cases in 3-5 weeks and then we head back down again.

Wall Street is worried about the Delta Variant this morning. Cases have doubled, hospitalizations are increasing, and restrictions are being re-implemented threating the recovery. This is simply due to failure to vaccinate.

Here are some facts:

• Less than 3% of new hospitalized patients are vaccinated
• In Florida, that number is less than 1%
• 99.2% of all May deaths were unvaccinated
• As of 7/12, only 791 deaths were reported as fully vaccinated

Yet well over a third of the population is not fully vaccinated. In fact, here are the number of vaccinations per day in the US.

Basically, we are at a plateau. Until we get more people vaccinated, we will continue to shoot ourselves in the foot.