covid19

Policy is Changing

It’s clear policy rules are changing: OC has record high 7 day average hospitalizations, deaths, and new cases… and yet continues to reopen. See the data here:

Number of New Cases per Day, Hospitalizations, and patients in ICU (left axis) and Number of Test (right axis)

Note the number of tests has been declining so this isn’t a testing increasing issue. Plus deaths and hospitalizations doesn’t depending on testing asymptomatic people.

The question is what this means for our recovery and economy. We will see soon what percentage of the decline in demand is due to mandatory stay-at-home and what percentage is due to people voluntarily staying away due to fear.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago

State of the Recovery

Another 2.4 million jobless claims. Old new. The real question is how the recovery is going.

It’s been 3 weeks since states started to reopen. Let’s see how the recovery is going based on industries we have data for in fairly real time.

State of Various Industries

The biggest takeaway is that even as the economy has started to reopen most of these industries has barely recovered.

Given these data, we can see it will be a long recovery for the economy.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago