U.S. Falling Behind Italy Recovery

For weeks, I’ve expected the U.S. to largely follow the path of Italy – and so far it has. Unfortunately, the last few days, U.S. cases have not been declining as fast as Italy.

Italy (+ 14 days) vs. US Covid-19 Cases

As seen in the graph, the cases matched well until about April 11th when the US has started staying much higher than Italy.

If we calculate a 5 day average of cases to remove testing variability, we can see the US is now close to 80% of peak cases while Italy was only 60% at this time.

It seems rather – and probably naturally – that we are now closer on the EU path. Like the EU, we have different ‘countries’ (i.e. states) with different restrictions. This is expanding our plateau period

EU (+9 Days) vs. US Covid-19 Cases

Note, however, that both Italy and the EU graphs suggest about 60% of peak cases in the US on May 1st. Thus, it is possible we end up converging still.

A good reason for the increase in cases yesterday is better testing – so that is a good thing.

Will Reopening Cause a Second Wave of Infections?

One of the big concerns about reopening is we are going to have a ‘second wave’ of coronavirus cases. It seems fairly obviously that cases would go up, especially if we don’t have the proper amount of testing.

The good (?) news is that 4 states are started or will start to reopen soon:

  • Florida has reopened some of its beaches
  • Georgia plans on just about a full reopening by the end of next week
  • South Carolina is opening many stores and beaches
  • Tennessee will open most counties Monday

One issue is these states still have a pretty high case load even as of yesterday:

We can use these states to track what the case load does after the reopening begins. Additionally, we will be able to see how much of the economy improves on reopening, especially in Georgia. They will open restaurants on April 27th.

It’s also worth noting that Atlanta’s airport is the busiest in the world.