More Permanently Temporary Job Losses

The headline number says good things – unemployment rate is under 8% again. (A lot of this is because participation in the economy is down.) However, the bigger issue is another 350k jobs are permanently lost.

Here’s the updated graph comparing the permanent job losses of the last 3 recessions.

We are halfway to the total permanent job losses of the last recession, which was the worst since the great depression. With Disney laying off 28,000 and maybe 100,000 airline jobs at risk, I expect permanent job losses to continue to increase.

Remember, permanent job losses are much harder to bounce back from…

COVID is Still Everywhere

It’s been a long time since I posted COVID data. Here is the current 7 day averages in EU and US.

Here is the US cases are beginning to rise again after making progress. This could be related to Labor Day weekend activities. The EU is close to square #1 again.

Bottom line is COVID has the ability to cause significant economic disruptions going forward, especially as we move indoors when the weather declines.