As predicted last week, mortgage applications for home purchases are now UP year-over-year according to the latest MBA Purchase Index data.
There was a brief drop in March to as low as -40%, but the index recovered quickly.
The question now is if there will be enough supply for these buyers and if not, will that cause a spike in prices.
It’s clear policy rules are changing: OC has record high 7 day average hospitalizations, deaths, and new cases… and yet continues to reopen. See the data here:
Note the number of tests has been declining so this isn’t a testing increasing issue. Plus deaths and hospitalizations doesn’t depending on testing asymptomatic people.
The question is what this means for our recovery and economy. We will see soon what percentage of the decline in demand is due to mandatory stay-at-home and what percentage is due to people voluntarily staying away due to fear.