Coming Soon: “Normal”

I continue to believe that people are far too negative on COVID. Cases, hospitalizations, and positivity rate are plummeting – probably because a lot of people have had COVID. Vaccine distribution is up. This has huge implications.

While many people want to doubt some of the Vaccines, this is the important information right here:

That’s right. Not ONE person was hospitalized for COVID in these studies. That’s the important thing – it’s not if people get sick but if people get seriously ill and overwhelm the medical system.

Think about what happens we things reopen:

  • How many people will still trade stocks now that do it for fun?
  • How much are people going to drive?
  • What about pent up demand for services?
  • Travel? Yes please
  • Non-casual workout clothing for reopening
  • Gyms for the people (like me) that put on the COVID 19
  • How many people are paying for door dash when they can just pick it up on the way home from work?
  • How happy will SFO people be in South Dakota once they realized there are no museums, theaters, concerts, and a lack of restaurant options?

There are huge behavior changes coming. Be ready for what they mean for the economy.

The Captain Obvious Statistical Facts

You can make statistics say anything you want. Stats don’t lie. All common phrases. For me the worst are what I call the Captain Obvious Statistics.

For example… do you know you are most likely to die in a car accident within a mile of your house? I know. Shocker considering… you are probably most likely to be driving within a mile of your house. (Imagine if I told you you are most likely to die in a car accident within 3000 miles of your house …)

Well, today’s Captain Obvious statistic: You were most likely to get COVID-19 at a supermarket.

Shocker. During the lockdowns the only thing open were supermarkets. Even if you are risk averse and travel or go out to eat, you still had to go to the supermarkets.

Supermarkets aren’t any more risky than anywhere else. It’s just more likely that you went to the supermarket than anywhere else.