I know the focus today is on the -32% GDP (FYI will probably be revised worse), but the important number of the day is jobless claims. And they continue to climb.
While it may seem 1.43 million isn’t so bad compared to the prior weeks, it is still 1.5 times HIGHER than anytime before COVID. You can see the comparison to Feb as well.
The market is anticipating a quick recovery with +20% GDP in Q3. If the economy continues to weaken again that is in jeopardy.
The April jobs report say the unemployment rate is 14.7%. It’s the highest since the great depression. The Actual unemployment rate is 18.9%. (It’s actually way higher now.)
Why the difference? This graph explains the story.
We actually lost 25 million jobs last month. The reason the unemployment rate isn’t higher is because 8 million people dropped out of the labor force.
If we kept those people in the labor force, the unemployment rate would be 18.9%. Even with the 14.7% number, that’s the highest unemployment since the Great Depression.
Note that the jobs report is based on data halfway through the month. Since this report, we’ve lose another 12 million jobs, so the actual unemployment rate is closing in on 25% now.