realestate

H/T to my friend Bill McBridge at calculatedriskblog.com who keeps posting insane data on the housing markets…

• Sacramento: Sales up 52%, Inventory down 45%, 0.7 Months Supply
• Maryland: Sales up 27%, Inventory Down 61%, 0.8 Months Supply
• Colorado: Sales up 41%, Inventory Down 66%, 0.7 Months Supply
• Houston: Sales up 58%, Inventory Down 43%, 1.4 Months Supply
• South Carolina: Sales up 41%, Inventory Down 56%, 1.3 Months Supply
• Portland (OR): Sales up 46%, Inventory Down 53%, 0.8 Months Supply
• New Hampshire: Sales up 13%, Inventory Down 57%, 0.8 Months Supply
• Boston: Sales up 35%, Inventory up 9%, 1.8 Months Supply
• Atlanta: Sales up 32%, Inventory down 65%, 0.8 Months Supply
• North Texas: Sales up 33%, Inventory down 65%, 0.6 Months Supply

The only silver lining for buyers is month-over-month inventory has started to rise in most places. Unfortunately, that’s also a seasonal thing.

With inventory numbers like this, housing prices will continue their rapid increase even with slightly higher rates and inventory.

Case Shiller index was up 12% year-over-year in February. Housing prices are increasing at almost the pace of the housing bubble. The reason is simple: Low rates and no inventory.

The question is when does the equilibrium change? When we reopen completely? Economy slows? I’m guessing price gains will slow down soon as inventory starts to bottom and housing gets more unaffordable in the second half of the year.