recession

Temporary Continues to Become Permanent

As more and more of the economic impact of the COVID recession become permanent, the length of the recovery will be longer.

Yelp is reporting that 60% (!!!) of closures are now permanent. That is a huge hit to the small business community that will likely take decades to recover from. This is also bad for CRE of course.

I expect more business closures this fall. Although restaurants have been able to survive due to outdoor seating, not many people will be able to eat outdoors in 2 months in many parts of the US.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago

Permanent Job Losses Past Tech Recession

Pretty good jobs number this morning – excluding the fact we still have missing millions of jobs from February and labor participation is way down.

The real concerning part – and what I’ve mentioned many times in my econ talks – is that temporary is becoming permanent. Here’s a comparison of permanent job losses of the last 3 recessions.

There was a large increase in permanent job losses and we have now equaled the tech recession.

These jobs will take a long time to come back and will stall a recover even once we get good testing and/or a vaccine.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago