Retail sales announced today… the numbers are incredibly strong. Ex-gasoline (which is usually removed) sales are up 7% (!!!) year over year.
As you can see this is the fastest growth since 2020.
The labor market seems to be fairly week based on jobless claims, but the consumer is roaring right along. Until this changes, the recovery will continue.
Initial Jobless Claims were close to 850,000 again today. Here’s how that compares to the rest of the year.
While the number looks great compared to March, this number is till 200,000 higher than ANY week pre-Covid.
The job market may be deteriorating here as we see more permanent job losses and colder weather starts to impact some service businesses again.
Please also note it has been 29 weeks since the first huge surge in claims. Many initials are past 26 weeks (the usual limit) so continuing claims will be less informative about job market health going forward.