Recovery Update

One interesting question is how many customers restaurants can handle once they open. Or of course, how much demand there is. Opentable added some new data on utilization.

Seats used in Reopen Restaurants

This shows the percentage of foot traffic for those restaurants that are reopen. You can see for the US the average is just under 50%. South Carolina is the most recovered state and Naples is the most recovered city.

The bottom line is that once things can reopen that the industry will not be able to fully recover. Of course many restaurants are not reopen. Below is a graph of the year-over-year change in restaurant visitors.

Restaurant and TSA Traffic Information

As you can see, the US restaurant traffic is still down 95% year over year. I’ve included the best state – South Carolina at -75% – and the best city – Naples Florida at -52%.

The bottom line is we will have a recovery. However, it will be bound by perhaps 50% due to social distancing. More importantly, no restaurant is profitable at these levels.

No V-Shaped Recovery

It’s been a week or so since some states have chosen to reopen. Let’s see how that has impacted flying and restaurant traffic.

As you can see the recovery is shallow even in those states that have started to reopen. Restaurant traffic is still down 94% in those states.

Flying has started to recovery, but is still down 93% (instead of 96%) year-over-year.

Based on this data, we cannot expect a V-shaped recovery for the U.S. economy – EVEN if all states reopen.