reopen

Update on COVID19 cases

More and more states are starting to reopen here in the US. Even California will begin “Stage 2” reopening Friday (May 9). Let’s see how we are doing compared to Italy.

US and Italy compared over time. Italy +14 days

It’s pretty clear we are running well behind Italy in terms of curbing cases of COVID-19 in the US.

The potentially more concerning part is testing. While testing has ramped up, it is no where near the number of tests that the U.S. would need for test and trace.

Number tests per day in the U.S.

The only good news is that for 5 states that have reopened, while the total number of cases remains near the peak, there has not been an explosion in new cases.

Reopen State cases per day. Orange line is the 5 day moving average

We’ll see what happens as states reopen.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago

No V-Shaped Recovery

It’s been a week or so since some states have chosen to reopen. Let’s see how that has impacted flying and restaurant traffic.

As you can see the recovery is shallow even in those states that have started to reopen. Restaurant traffic is still down 94% in those states.

Flying has started to recovery, but is still down 93% (instead of 96%) year-over-year.

Based on this data, we cannot expect a V-shaped recovery for the U.S. economy – EVEN if all states reopen.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago