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Newport Beach Chamber Econ and Financial Recap

Thank you to everyone who came out to the Newport Beach Chamber’s 2023 Economic and Financial Forecast at the Balboa Bay Resort. As always, I am humbled by the number of people that turn to me for economical and financial advice.

My overall themes were:

  • We have inflation because we gave out too much money
  • Inflation will be a problem until the labor market cools
  • Likely recession in 2023 as the Fed overshoots (almost has to at this point)
  • Depth of recession depends on how much the Fed is willing to tolerate 3-4% inflation
  • Stocks are going nowhere. When rates start coming down (bullish), earnings estimates will start coming down (bearish)
  • Long-term bonds seem like an opportunity to me.

For those interested, here is my slide deck: LINK

By Christopher Schwarz, ago

Inflation is Still a Problem

September CPI is again hotter than people expect. People don’t understand it’s not oil driving these number: It’s labor related issues. Until the labor market cools, we have a problem. Here’s my breakdown of CPI.

You can see used cars and oil inflation is way down. But you can see the core components are hotter than before.

With that said, I’ll give you two positive things: 1) It looks like the core component part is slowing and 2) You can see the 10 year bond hasn’t gone over 4% on this number.

As noted many times, the Fed will need to be aggressive until labor market breaks. And I think long-term bonds are a safer place to be as yields may have peaked.

By Christopher Schwarz, ago